I hope you had the opportunity to watch Trump’s press conference at the White House flag event. He essentially stated that Powell is not reducing interest rates, so he (Bessent) will issue 3, 6, and 9-month bills until he appoints a new Fed chair and lowers the rate.
Post that he will issue longer-term debt. I’m not sure why he believes that a 10-year bond will be cheaper because of the Fed’s interest rate cuts, but I suppose there will be ripple effects or yield curve control.
Short-term, it appears to be quite bullish risk. Enjoy the party while it lasts.
I need more clarity on how you calculate US federal debt on gold terms and its associated units (US$ per punce). We know gold is about $3400 per ounce and marketable federal debt is about $26.7T from FRED (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MVMTD027MNFRBDAL). If you divide the two it gives you the equivalent federal debt in ounces of gold, but it doesn't give you the units on your chart - US$ per ounce
Would you consider the GENIOUS act monetisation of the deficit through stable coins or are stable coins a new source of financing the deficit through global bank transfers (global savers financing the deficit through purchase stable coins)? Does your GLI factor in stable coins as a source of liquidity?
All money that is anywhere must be somewhere! The 'stable' parts of stable coins are included. The unknown and potentially unstable but cannot be because we don't know what that is ie undisclosed. Judging from Tether this could be as much as 15% of issue but more likely 3-5%.
I prefer to start with a view on gold and then assume BTC will beat it. Gold largely matches or betters Federal debt. Fed debt is growing at circa 8-10% pa and should roughly double every 7-8 years. Hence, $200k BTC looks racy...$150k more plausible.
I am surely mixing my billions and trillions, but wouldn't a 30 trillion debt load divided by 1 million $/oz give us a 30 million price for gold? Perhaps the ratio is in billion $/oz, not million? Nevertheless, 30.000 price tag for gold is good enough for me!
I hope you had the opportunity to watch Trump’s press conference at the White House flag event. He essentially stated that Powell is not reducing interest rates, so he (Bessent) will issue 3, 6, and 9-month bills until he appoints a new Fed chair and lowers the rate.
Post that he will issue longer-term debt. I’m not sure why he believes that a 10-year bond will be cheaper because of the Fed’s interest rate cuts, but I suppose there will be ripple effects or yield curve control.
Short-term, it appears to be quite bullish risk. Enjoy the party while it lasts.
I need more clarity on how you calculate US federal debt on gold terms and its associated units (US$ per punce). We know gold is about $3400 per ounce and marketable federal debt is about $26.7T from FRED (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MVMTD027MNFRBDAL). If you divide the two it gives you the equivalent federal debt in ounces of gold, but it doesn't give you the units on your chart - US$ per ounce
Sorry well spotted Chart should be billions not millions Apologies But calculations in text correct
Would you consider the GENIOUS act monetisation of the deficit through stable coins or are stable coins a new source of financing the deficit through global bank transfers (global savers financing the deficit through purchase stable coins)? Does your GLI factor in stable coins as a source of liquidity?
All money that is anywhere must be somewhere! The 'stable' parts of stable coins are included. The unknown and potentially unstable but cannot be because we don't know what that is ie undisclosed. Judging from Tether this could be as much as 15% of issue but more likely 3-5%.
What do you think about the expectations of serious people regarding Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by the end of the year / mid-2026?
Is it realistic?
I prefer to start with a view on gold and then assume BTC will beat it. Gold largely matches or betters Federal debt. Fed debt is growing at circa 8-10% pa and should roughly double every 7-8 years. Hence, $200k BTC looks racy...$150k more plausible.
I am surely mixing my billions and trillions, but wouldn't a 30 trillion debt load divided by 1 million $/oz give us a 30 million price for gold? Perhaps the ratio is in billion $/oz, not million? Nevertheless, 30.000 price tag for gold is good enough for me!
Sorry well spotted Chart should be billions not millions Apologies But calculations in text correct
”A Federal debt target of US$30 trillion is unrealistically low and could easily be reached by year-end.“
I need more clarity on “marketable“ federal debt as we know the nominal debt is just shy of $37Trillion here in late June 2025
Some debt is held by State entities eg Social Security fund and not available to private sector
Ooohhh! Thanks. Duh
Class.