Hello Michael, basic question that I know is unrelated to this post specifically..
If Global Liquidity continues to track lower into this year, this insinuates BTC could struggle in the intermediate/short term until we see sufficient stimulus (enough to spill into risk assets) from central banks?
In my mind, this stimulus seems likely as we approach the debt wall into mid-year and beyond. After this stimulus, the ‘’Quantitative Support’’ could kick off another raging bull due to how reflexive BTC is with regard to Global Liquidity?
Appreciate your thoughts if you have any! Thank you for your work. I am still studying and I value your content very much.
Hi Ella, great question. Yes liquidity is slowing. What's more, it is forward looking. No there not a game plan yet in place to boost things, but this does seem inevitable. My view is that BTC can be bought at cheaper levels, but there is always a risk in doing this when the long-term up trend seems so compelling.
In your book, Capital Wars, you mention that rising yields in bond markets are sometimes due to bullish sentiments in equity markets (aka money is flowing into equity markets because market participants are bullish). In this post, you seem to indicate that rising yields are a problem.
In this case, are rising yields a problem because the US deficit will be more expensive to finance? Also, are rising yields an issue because yields are rising due to an anticipated increase in the supply of longer-dated bonds instead of less demand?
Abundant liquidity decreases systemic risks, hence pushes yields higher because of more inflation risks and risk asset growth.
The higher yield then reduce the bond value i.e. the collateral value, which then decreases GL because collthe collateral multiplier makes about 60% of GL.
If i understood correctly about this topic, when bond yields and term premie rises alot, and the example of bond vigilantes, is a way of the Free Market to "Force" the FED to monetize and pay the debt?
In effect yes, because it's the short term fix or easy way out. There is always demand for short dated paper at prevailing rates. Hence Yellen could easily sell huge amounts, but leaves Bessent with a problem of increasing roll-overs
Depends on time horizon. Strong dollar now is making me think hard about attractions of 2-year bonds. Longer term gold is good. Evidence the problems other are having eg UK as we speak ...crashing sterling rising yields
"bond term premia have been unusually depressed over recent years by the slower pace in coupon supply and the reduced demand for ‘safe’ asset bonds following sharp rises in Fed Liquidity provision"
just for clarification: term premia rose because of "reduced demand for ‘safe’ asset bonds following sharp rises in Fed Liquidity provision" ?
Yes Term premia are about S&D. Demand for 'safe' assets or Treasuries depends on systemic liquidity. Shortages trigger more demand for safe assets and falling term premia ie. rising Treasury prices. Evidence China now. Abundant liquidity and large scale supplies of coupon debt means rising term premia. Note there is a lag. Initially say in a QE when Fed buys debt prices of bonds rise, but after a few weeks they reverse direction as the new liquidity filters out.
Financial crises tend to come in two stripes: (1) crises of monetary deflation and (2) crises of monetary inflation. Think of the USD gold price as a measure ie respectively down and up. Monetary deflations can be corrected by offsetting monetary inflations. That was the reason for the 1934 Gold Act. Think also of the gold price since 2000. Another burst of monetary inflation is due!
Hello Michael, thank you for this analysis. Are we seeing a squeeze on the dollar like that of 1931 or 2008? Could you explain how does happened and their impact on the subsequent depressions?
Financial crises tend to come in two stripes: (1) crises of monetary deflation and (2) crises of monetary inflation. Think of the USD gold price as a measure ie respectively down and up. Monetary deflations can be corrected by offsetting monetary inflations. That was the reason for the 1934 Gold Act. Think also of the gold price since 2000. Another burst of monetary inflation is due!
You are likely correct. However, it is the path of least resistance for policy makers in the short term. Like most drugs it feels good in initial stages, then the consequences appear.
Hello Michael, basic question that I know is unrelated to this post specifically..
If Global Liquidity continues to track lower into this year, this insinuates BTC could struggle in the intermediate/short term until we see sufficient stimulus (enough to spill into risk assets) from central banks?
In my mind, this stimulus seems likely as we approach the debt wall into mid-year and beyond. After this stimulus, the ‘’Quantitative Support’’ could kick off another raging bull due to how reflexive BTC is with regard to Global Liquidity?
Appreciate your thoughts if you have any! Thank you for your work. I am still studying and I value your content very much.
Hi Ella, great question. Yes liquidity is slowing. What's more, it is forward looking. No there not a game plan yet in place to boost things, but this does seem inevitable. My view is that BTC can be bought at cheaper levels, but there is always a risk in doing this when the long-term up trend seems so compelling.
Being under the defense umbrella seems to cause a loss of “vigor” or “vitality”
Hence these societies are literally dying of old age
No babies
As Henry Kissinger said being a friend of the USA is fatal
Frankly I expect federal reserve to buy everything
Pump me up
Just my unedumacted opinion
lol
May be only solution in long term!
Hi Michael,
In your book, Capital Wars, you mention that rising yields in bond markets are sometimes due to bullish sentiments in equity markets (aka money is flowing into equity markets because market participants are bullish). In this post, you seem to indicate that rising yields are a problem.
In this case, are rising yields a problem because the US deficit will be more expensive to finance? Also, are rising yields an issue because yields are rising due to an anticipated increase in the supply of longer-dated bonds instead of less demand?
Abundant liquidity decreases systemic risks, hence pushes yields higher because of more inflation risks and risk asset growth.
The higher yield then reduce the bond value i.e. the collateral value, which then decreases GL because collthe collateral multiplier makes about 60% of GL.
The loop is closed
Thanks, Michael for the analysis
If i understood correctly about this topic, when bond yields and term premie rises alot, and the example of bond vigilantes, is a way of the Free Market to "Force" the FED to monetize and pay the debt?
In effect yes, because it's the short term fix or easy way out. There is always demand for short dated paper at prevailing rates. Hence Yellen could easily sell huge amounts, but leaves Bessent with a problem of increasing roll-overs
Thanks Michael. Would you overweight gold over cash if this hypothesis plays out?
Depends on time horizon. Strong dollar now is making me think hard about attractions of 2-year bonds. Longer term gold is good. Evidence the problems other are having eg UK as we speak ...crashing sterling rising yields
"bond term premia have been unusually depressed over recent years by the slower pace in coupon supply and the reduced demand for ‘safe’ asset bonds following sharp rises in Fed Liquidity provision"
just for clarification: term premia rose because of "reduced demand for ‘safe’ asset bonds following sharp rises in Fed Liquidity provision" ?
Yes Term premia are about S&D. Demand for 'safe' assets or Treasuries depends on systemic liquidity. Shortages trigger more demand for safe assets and falling term premia ie. rising Treasury prices. Evidence China now. Abundant liquidity and large scale supplies of coupon debt means rising term premia. Note there is a lag. Initially say in a QE when Fed buys debt prices of bonds rise, but after a few weeks they reverse direction as the new liquidity filters out.
Financial crises tend to come in two stripes: (1) crises of monetary deflation and (2) crises of monetary inflation. Think of the USD gold price as a measure ie respectively down and up. Monetary deflations can be corrected by offsetting monetary inflations. That was the reason for the 1934 Gold Act. Think also of the gold price since 2000. Another burst of monetary inflation is due!
Hello Michael, thank you for this analysis. Are we seeing a squeeze on the dollar like that of 1931 or 2008? Could you explain how does happened and their impact on the subsequent depressions?
Financial crises tend to come in two stripes: (1) crises of monetary deflation and (2) crises of monetary inflation. Think of the USD gold price as a measure ie respectively down and up. Monetary deflations can be corrected by offsetting monetary inflations. That was the reason for the 1934 Gold Act. Think also of the gold price since 2000. Another burst of monetary inflation is due!
Thank you!!
If the 10Y is on path to 5.5% then there’s more pain to come in the markets, ?
That indeed is the risk. Head down! The strong dollar is a wrecking ball
Mike, not so sure that defense umbrella is what it used to be.
Isn't currency devaluation going to exacerbate the rising risk premiums?
You are likely correct. However, it is the path of least resistance for policy makers in the short term. Like most drugs it feels good in initial stages, then the consequences appear.
This and also ongoing non YC-YC to avoid a crisis in the short term. The dollar clearly didn't say it's last word