Hi Michael, love your content, but the pieces published here are starting to feel increasingly repetitive, which detracts from the overall value. Hope you’ll take this as constructive feedback, as the content is great otherwise.
Looks like final May numbers (see June 17th Weekly Update) say there actually was NO decline in liquidity in May (vs flash weekly estimates) and it was flat at ~$180T the whole month. So maybe no liquidity-caused correction in Aug. Hmm.
Great Article as usual! M2 declined in 2023, but stocks, Bitcoin, and other assets made a strong recovery, aligning with GLI. However, Fed liquidity is incredibly powerful, as evidenced by the helplessness of Banks, repo market, private companies, Treasuries, and Shadow Banks during the GFC, Covid, and SVB failure. In times of crisis, only Fed liquidity works. And the Fed prints money. Fed liquidity works during a crisis, but GLI works all the time!
Would be great to get an idea of what countries mainly drive global liquidity.. Im guessing it’s predominantly the US, China, and EU, but what are the breakdowns?
Surprise, Lyn is still using M2. During the 2023 stock run-up, many investors and 'gurus' were blindsided because they used M2 and an inverted yield curve, and superstition never dies. Luckily, I was already following you.
I went to Kellogg Northwestern and I barely understand this... Where can we get a weekly update on GL... Great article. Love to run the data set through Kstats...
Thank you... Have you calculated the days delayed when the liquidity shows up in risk-on assets... Does it take 8 to 12 weeks for the liquidity to work through the system. Peak GL in Jan26 might translate to a march to april peak in risk assets as an example... Ilk be checking GL every Tuesday... Thank you agaib
@RaoulPal
Really enjoyed reading
What statistical method do you use to get the percent contributions towards the movement of bitcoin? Does it use the f statistic?
Hi Michael, love your content, but the pieces published here are starting to feel increasingly repetitive, which detracts from the overall value. Hope you’ll take this as constructive feedback, as the content is great otherwise.
Love this. So many people are making decisions based on M2 charts and will be caught out when the lag hits during August.
Looks like final May numbers (see June 17th Weekly Update) say there actually was NO decline in liquidity in May (vs flash weekly estimates) and it was flat at ~$180T the whole month. So maybe no liquidity-caused correction in Aug. Hmm.
Yes be interesting to get Mike’s clarification on this. Lets see if he responds.
Great Article as usual! M2 declined in 2023, but stocks, Bitcoin, and other assets made a strong recovery, aligning with GLI. However, Fed liquidity is incredibly powerful, as evidenced by the helplessness of Banks, repo market, private companies, Treasuries, and Shadow Banks during the GFC, Covid, and SVB failure. In times of crisis, only Fed liquidity works. And the Fed prints money. Fed liquidity works during a crisis, but GLI works all the time!
Would be great to get an idea of what countries mainly drive global liquidity.. Im guessing it’s predominantly the US, China, and EU, but what are the breakdowns?
Trust you will explain this to Lyn...
I'm sure she knows!
Surprise, Lyn is still using M2. During the 2023 stock run-up, many investors and 'gurus' were blindsided because they used M2 and an inverted yield curve, and superstition never dies. Luckily, I was already following you.
Are there specific crypto liquidity flows you monitor to get a gauge within crypto too?
Etf flows?
COT data?
Bitcoin, others, stablecoin dominance?
In terms of Global Liquidity it is approx 40:40:20. But in terms of impact 2/3 US 1/3 China
I went to Kellogg Northwestern and I barely understand this... Where can we get a weekly update on GL... Great article. Love to run the data set through Kstats...
Published in Substack every Tuesday
Thank you... Have you calculated the days delayed when the liquidity shows up in risk-on assets... Does it take 8 to 12 weeks for the liquidity to work through the system. Peak GL in Jan26 might translate to a march to april peak in risk assets as an example... Ilk be checking GL every Tuesday... Thank you agaib
He's consistently said 13 weeks. That's why the article GL & M2 charts are +13 wks