Per your mention that gold & btc have performance profile almost mirror images to bonds, this means that they keep increasing as inflation goes higher. In large parts, this makes sense as they respond to liquidity, and more liquidity eventually finds its way to high street inflation.
However, I remember you once also noted that high street inflation can be negative for liquidity. So instead of mirror images to bonds, should there be a bump in gold/btc profiles plotted against inflation -- the bump is when high street inflation becomes detrimental to liquidity?
Depends on time horizon but if you want to trade the peak cash is a great option. Note how the cycle (curiously) is behaving 'normally' so far in terms of bonds, yield curve, commodities and industry sectors.
Michael, in your research you mention the liquidity cycle and its anticipated peak in Q12026. What asset allocation do you recommend during such a peak. For instance in 2022, the only asset classes that seemed to do well were energy and the US Dollar. Would you recommend just going to cash as the safest bet? Thanks in advance
Michael, you mention the two flavours of inflation:- monetary and cost. You cover monetary inflation and its mitigations (gold, crypto) extensively. On the subject of cost inflation, do you see any merit in following the 1970s playbook of using commodities (porkbellies, oil & copper futures and suchlike) as a mitigation in portfolios?
What are the pros and cons of allocating 3:3:3:1 (equities:gold:btc:cash/TIPS) when monetary inflation is the primary concern in the next decade?
(stocks are getting harder to outperform inflation hedges) Assuming you put gold and btc in tax-deferred or exempt accounts (using IAU, SGOL, PHYS as gold alternatives and FBTC as btc) What’s your thought? Thank you.
The mix should take into account both potential returns, volatility risk and cross correlations, and need to think about what might happen if we are wrong. Hence, I reckon a higher weighting in stocks makes sense (pace your observation) and slightly less in gold/BTC
I form the portfolio Michael portfolio of 1:6:1:1:1, and 1:1:1:1:1, that is equal weight to the five assets, spy, gld, btc, cash, tips from 2020 to now, the result is below.
The equal-weighted portfolio has a better shape ratio, lower risk and standard deviation, and a higher annual return. The results are below. I wanted to attach the graph of the 2 returns, but this cannot be done
Hi Rob, thanks for sharing your results. Though, I do not understand your ratios: 1:6:1:1:1 is what Michael means as 6:1:1:1:1 ? And then the Portfolio 1 reads as 2:2:2:2:2, do you mean equal weights, i.e. 1:1:1:1:1 ?
Portfolio 4, sp500 only 0.149867 0.197563 0.758580
As expected, the 60:40 portfolio is the worst, although the risk, std, is better, but in terms of reward per unit risk, the Sharpe ratio, it is the worst compared to all, and the S&P 500 is the third worst performing portfolio, but has the highest risk
Michael, thank you for another great article. I recall that a couple months ago you went risk off. Has that changed? Thanks.
V important note. Placing what everyone suspects into a rigorous framework is super useful. Thanks Mike and team.
Hi Michael,
Per your mention that gold & btc have performance profile almost mirror images to bonds, this means that they keep increasing as inflation goes higher. In large parts, this makes sense as they respond to liquidity, and more liquidity eventually finds its way to high street inflation.
However, I remember you once also noted that high street inflation can be negative for liquidity. So instead of mirror images to bonds, should there be a bump in gold/btc profiles plotted against inflation -- the bump is when high street inflation becomes detrimental to liquidity?
Great research. Love getting this information
Depends on time horizon but if you want to trade the peak cash is a great option. Note how the cycle (curiously) is behaving 'normally' so far in terms of bonds, yield curve, commodities and industry sectors.
Michael, in your research you mention the liquidity cycle and its anticipated peak in Q12026. What asset allocation do you recommend during such a peak. For instance in 2022, the only asset classes that seemed to do well were energy and the US Dollar. Would you recommend just going to cash as the safest bet? Thanks in advance
What about other commodities? I would thing it would deserve an equal allocation % as general equities
Michael, you mention the two flavours of inflation:- monetary and cost. You cover monetary inflation and its mitigations (gold, crypto) extensively. On the subject of cost inflation, do you see any merit in following the 1970s playbook of using commodities (porkbellies, oil & copper futures and suchlike) as a mitigation in portfolios?
Yes and consider tech stocks because they are productivity leaders
What are the pros and cons of allocating 3:3:3:1 (equities:gold:btc:cash/TIPS) when monetary inflation is the primary concern in the next decade?
(stocks are getting harder to outperform inflation hedges) Assuming you put gold and btc in tax-deferred or exempt accounts (using IAU, SGOL, PHYS as gold alternatives and FBTC as btc) What’s your thought? Thank you.
Thanks for your kind reply and extra info. Ok, as I expected. All the best, Sab
The mix should take into account both potential returns, volatility risk and cross correlations, and need to think about what might happen if we are wrong. Hence, I reckon a higher weighting in stocks makes sense (pace your observation) and slightly less in gold/BTC
I form the portfolio Michael portfolio of 1:6:1:1:1, and 1:1:1:1:1, that is equal weight to the five assets, spy, gld, btc, cash, tips from 2020 to now, the result is below.
The equal-weighted portfolio has a better shape ratio, lower risk and standard deviation, and a higher annual return. The results are below. I wanted to attach the graph of the 2 returns, but this cannot be done
Annual Return Annual Std Dev Sharpe Ratio
Portfolio 1 (2:2:2:2:2) 0.200155 0.139851 1.431200
Portfolio 2 (1:6:1:1:1) 0.173250 0.153044 1.132031
Hi Rob, thanks for sharing your results. Though, I do not understand your ratios: 1:6:1:1:1 is what Michael means as 6:1:1:1:1 ? And then the Portfolio 1 reads as 2:2:2:2:2, do you mean equal weights, i.e. 1:1:1:1:1 ?
yes, it is the 6:1:1:1:1 , 2:2:2:2:2 is 1:1:1:1:1, let me also include the 60:40 , and sp500 only result
Annual Return Annual Std Dev Sharpe Ratio
Portfolio 1 (equal weight) 0.201047 0.139718 1.438951
Portfolio 2 (1:6:1:1:1) 0.175457 0.152915 1.147417
Portfolio 3 60:40 0.071834 0.129510 0.554661
Portfolio 4, sp500 only 0.149867 0.197563 0.758580
As expected, the 60:40 portfolio is the worst, although the risk, std, is better, but in terms of reward per unit risk, the Sharpe ratio, it is the worst compared to all, and the S&P 500 is the third worst performing portfolio, but has the highest risk
Michael, can I work for you?