Does this mean risk assets have a chance of performing well in 2026? It breaks the assertion that the end of the liquidity cycle is at the end of 2025, right?
From the article, you mentioned, "It may explain why the US Treasury in the latest QRA (Quarterly Refunding Announcement) has chosen to steer an identical path to that previously mapped out by Janet Yellen." I am curious where did you find the issuance breakdown bills, notes, and bonds. I am only able to find the breakdown between notes and bonds, but not bills in the quarterly refunding announcement. (https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/TBACRecommendedFinancingTableByRefundingQuarter-04302025.pdf)
Does this mean risk assets have a chance of performing well in 2026? It breaks the assertion that the end of the liquidity cycle is at the end of 2025, right?
Hi Michael, I recall that about 1-2 months ago you went 'risk off'. Has this liquidity changed your thoughts about 'risk on/off'?
What is the appropriate way to measure the risk appetite? Seems important as well as GLI.
From the article, you mentioned, "It may explain why the US Treasury in the latest QRA (Quarterly Refunding Announcement) has chosen to steer an identical path to that previously mapped out by Janet Yellen." I am curious where did you find the issuance breakdown bills, notes, and bonds. I am only able to find the breakdown between notes and bonds, but not bills in the quarterly refunding announcement. (https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/TBACRecommendedFinancingTableByRefundingQuarter-04302025.pdf)
Quarterly Release Data: 2025 - 2nd Quarter: is an Excel file with Bills split-out.
Same 'Most Recent Quarterly Refunding Documents' page for all latest releases.
There's also the Auction Schedules (xml & pdf) for the upcoming quarter.
Thanks for your detailed response. I have found the data you have mentioned. Thanks so much!