The Pause That Refreshes?
Latest Fed Liquidity data warns that April may be tricky
Balance sheet data released in the past few days shows that US Federal Reserve Liquidity injections, the backbone supporting recent market gains, is stalling. It may stall further over coming weeks unless US Treasury spending picks up (i.e. the TGA is run-down) or the roll-off of Treasury securities (i.e. the QT program) slows down. The chart below reports recent data to March 27th 2024. The Fed balance sheet (red line) continues to fall, although not as fast as once planned. Alongside, Fed liquidity injections (orange) are dipping and, according to our projections, seem set to dip further before rebounding through the rest of 2024.
