The 5-6 Year Re-fi Cycle

Studying Long-term swings in Global Liquidity

We have long identified a 5-6 year cycle (65 months) in Global Liquidity. Our approach uses Fourier analysis and our initial studies date back to Year 2000. See chart below. This, cycle we argue, likely resonates with a frequency similar to the average maturity of World debt. In other words, it represents the cycle of debt re-financing. Reassuringly, a thorough independent analysis by Lars von Thienen from The Foundation for the Study of Cycles (Cycles.org) confirmed our original findings, even added a second important cycle frequency at 76 months (6.3 years).