Does the Fed Funds Rate Drive Bitcoin?

December Bitcoin at $40,000?!

No, this is not our forecast, but a panelist at the FT’s recent Crypto and Digital Assets Summit (8-9^th May) did drop this party pooper. An outlier perhaps, since all other panelists expected BTC$ to exceed US$100,000 by year-end? But predicting near-term swings in a volatile instrument is always hazardous. We prefer to make the long-term case.

Here, a consensus of the panelists got behind the idea that regulation plainly matters for crypto. Yet, an astonishing 45% of the audience polled believe that Bitcoin’s price is purely driven by ‘speculation’, with monetary policy (17%) and geopolitics (15%) outpaced, but the only other notable drivers. Our view is that none of these factors really count and what really matters are Global Liquidity and fiscal policy, or, put differently, the integrity of government debt.