Did January Really Matter?

Assessing Latest US (and Chinese) Policy Moves

The bottom line is that January told us more about the robust US economy and, ironically, the much easier Chinese policy than it told about what US policy makers are planning. Yet, our view remains that a cut in US policy rates will still be announced in the March FOMC meeting and that the QT taper will start shortly thereafter. We remain upbeat about markets. Our only concern is that investors are now far more bullish than they were a year ago.