Dancing Near The Door

An End-Year Perspective On 2025

After another year of decent investment gains, some perspective is always helpful. Let’s start with World stocks and consider the following chart, which compares this bull market to the ‘average’ 1970-2020 cycle, re-based to current levels. The current cycle tracks closely. On ‘average’, we should be close to the end of this bull run. The clouds are gathering, but our indicators are not definitively ‘Risk Off’ yet.

For now, Global Liquidity is supportive as confirmed by the Bitcoin price, which has been a highly sensitive liquidity barometer. The next chart updates the relationship between the 6 week change in the Bitcoin price and the same change in Global Liquidity advanced by 13 weeks.