Cycles
A Solid Foundation For Asset Allocation
Where are we in the cycle? And, which cycle matters, is another question? We have just returned from the Foundation for the Study of Cycles’ (FSC) recent New York 3-day conference (‘Cycles in the City’). High praise is due. Speakers, including well-known names from the arenas of technical analysis (John Bollinger, Elliot Prechter, Tom McClellan, Larry Williams, Andrew Pancholi) and the markets (Harry Dent, Bill Sarubbi), detailed their findings from analysing and filtering many key cyclical patterns. Inevitably, the headline focus and the main course was stocks, but with an occasional side order of commodities.
To cut to the chase, the consensus concluded that a major turning point in stock markets is coming within the next 6-18 months: roughly half of speakers, including ourselves, leant towards ‘sooner’ and ahead of the mid-terms, some others put the turn later, such as around early-2028. Nearly, all expect greater volatility, and the outlook for commodities, pace the mixed views on oil apart, was strongly upbeat, especially for softs, like wheat and soybeans.
